Every signal published and timestamped — wins and losses, zero cherry-picking. Results are backtested and/or paper (hypothetical), clearly labeled. Educational only, not financial advice.
21-year strategy backtest · 2005–2026 · hypothetical
The Credit Spread and Calendar Spread strategies were backtested across 21 years of options data — including the 2008 financial crisis, 2010 flash crash, 2020 COVID collapse, and 2022 bear market. Backtested/hypothetical results — not indicative of future results; educational only.
85%
Backtested win rate
1.15
Profit factor
760+
Backtested trades
7%
Max drawdown
| Year | Backtested P&L (1 contract) | Regime |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | +$575 | calm |
| 2006 | +$482 | calm |
| 2007 | +$141 | subprime begins |
| 2008 | -$1,068 | financial crisis |
| 2009 | +$495 | recovery |
| 2010 | -$80 | flash crash |
| 2011 | -$66 | EU debt crisis |
| 2012 | +$606 | calm |
| 2013 | +$221 | bull run |
| 2014 | +$119 | low vol |
| 2015 | -$704 | China selloff |
| 2016 | +$677 | Brexit/election |
| 2017 | +$1,229 | record-low VIX |
| 2018 | -$942 | Q4 vol spike |
| 2019 | +$743 | recovery |
| 2020 | -$121 | COVID crash |
| 2021 | +$404 | post-COVID rally |
| 2022 | -$535 | bear market |
| 2023 | +$1,108 | AI rally |
| 2024 | +$585 | election-year vol |
| 2025 | +$728 | — |
| 2026 | -$26 | YTD |
| TOTAL | +$4,571 | 2005–2026 · 1 contract · ~85% win rate · PF 1.15 · max DD ≈ 7% |
⚠️ Backtested / hypothetical — historical simulation on SPX options data (1 contract/trade). Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations, is prepared with hindsight, excludes slippage/commissions, and is not indicative of future results. Educational only, not financial advice; not a promise of income.
Current results (paper · live data)
Sample backtested trades — Credit Spreads
10 consecutive trades from the SPX backtest · hypothetical · shown with the loss included
| Entry | Exit | Spread | Credit | Exit | VIX | Result | P&L / lot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-14 | 6365/6355P | $1.09 | $0.36 | 19.5 | WIN | +$68 |
| 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-17 | 6580/6570P | $1.08 | $0.51 | 18.2 | WIN | +$52 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | 6645/6635P | $1.08 | $0.53 | 18.9 | WIN | +$50 |
| 2026-04-28 | 2026-04-30 | 6695/6685P | $1.07 | $0.58 | 17.8 | WIN | +$44 |
| 2026-05-01 | 2026-05-06 | 6800/6790P | $1.06 | $0.47 | 17.0 | WIN | +$54 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2026-05-13 | 6900/6890P | $1.07 | $0.57 | 17.1 | WIN | +$45 |
| 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-27 | 7050/7040P | $1.07 | $0.54 | 17.3 | WIN | +$48 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2026-06-10 | 7145/7135P | $1.05 | $3.81 | 15.7 | LOSS | -$281 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-15 | 6895/6885P | $1.08 | $0.22 | 19.4 | WIN | +$81 |
| 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-18 | 6945/6935P | $1.08 | $0.49 | 18.4 | WIN | +$54 |
⚠️ Backtested / hypothetical — generated by our strategy rules on historical SPX options data (30-DTE, 1 contract, exits at profit target / stop). Includes a real stop-loss so you see the full profile. Hypothetical performance has inherent limitations and is not indicative of future results. Educational only, not financial advice; not a promise of income. Calendar Spread backtesting requires volatility-surface history and is not shown.
Published results by strategy
Every signal published as it closes — wins and losses. Paper / hypothetical (live data), tracked separately per strategy.
100.0%
Win
2
Closed
+$470
P&L
2
Open
40.0%
Win
5
Closed
$-384
P&L
5
Open
| Period | Trades | Win% | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W28 | 1 | 0.0% | -$231 |
| 2026-W27 | 3 | 66.7% | +$6 |
| 2026-W26 | 3 | 66.7% | +$311 |
| Period | Trades | Win% | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 7 | 57.1% | +$86 |
| Exit date | Strategy | Ticker | Trade | Reason | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Calendar | GLD | put 370 / call 393 double | TENT_BREACH | -$24 (-2%) |
| 2026-07-02 | Credit spread | SPX | STO 6720/6710P @ $1.1 | PROFIT_TARGET | +$60 (+54%) |
| 2026-07-17 | Calendar | QQQ | put 691 / call 734 double | TENT_BREACH | -$231 (-14%) |
| 2026-07-10 | Calendar | TLT | put 84 / call 89 double | PROFIT_TARGET | +$17 (+19%) |
| 2026-07-06 | Calendar | GLD | put 359 / call 381 double | TENT_BREACH | +$13 (+1%) |
| 2026-07-02 | Calendar | QQQ | put 714 / call 758 double | TENT_BREACH | -$159 (-10%) |
| 2026-07-02 | Credit spread | SPX | STO 6960/6950P | PROFIT_TARGET | +$410 (+820%) |
Equity curve
Trade log
| # | Signal Time | Spread | Expiry | DTE | Credit | Max Loss | ROR | VIX | SPX | Exit Reason | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First trades appear Monday 9:45 AM ET when the market opens | ||||||||||||